Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
